posted October 18, 2012 07:12 PM
O'Bomber has more "projected" electoral votes than Romney?Say what? Says who? 
Mitt Romney winning 301 electoral votes as projected by polling data
Elections 2012
September 21, 2012
Dean Chambers
The map showing which candidates lead in the various states in the Presidential Race.
If the election were held today Mitt Romney would win 301 electoral votes while Barack Obama would win in states worth 221 electoral votes. Michigan, worth 16 electoral votes, is too close to call.
The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Daily Tracking poll released today shows President Obama leading over Mitt Romney by a 46 percent to 45 percent margin. The new Gallup Tracking poll released today shows the race tied at 47 percent for each candidate. Today's release of the QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll shows a 55 percent to 45 percent lead for Mitt Romney. An Associated Press/GfK poll released yesterday, based on a balanced sample showed Obama leading Romney 47 percent to 46 percent. These are the most accurate and least skewed polls among those currently included in the Real Clear Politics average of presidential polls. The average of these four polls would put the race at 48.3 Romney and 46.3 Obama. That is within the margin of error or a tie. Leaving out the QstarNews poll, the average of the other three is a tie.
The presidential race is decided by the votes of the states that send the electors to the electoral college who will actually elect the next president under our Constitution. State polls released today and recently are the basis for the analysis below. As former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris and others have pointed out, the undecided vote in a presidential election will always heavily favor the challenging candidate by election day. This entirely new analysis will be by regions of the country and the key swing states within them. The map above shows the map based on this analysis and projection of electoral votes.
Northeast: Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Vermont are strongly supporting Obama. Maine and Connecticut lean to Obama but might come into play if Romney's campaign gains more traction in the polls nationally. New Hampshire is the key swing state and Rasmussen's latest poll there shows Romney winning by three percent. New Hampshire will go for Romney in November. New York is solidly blue for Obama also.
Pennsylvania and New Jersey lean toward Obama while Delaware, Maryland and Washington DC all strongly favor Obama.
South: This region is Romney's strongest area as it has been for Republicans in recent presidential elections. West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas are all solidly “red” and Romney states. Virginia, North Carolina and Florida are the key swing states in the South. There are many heavily-skewed polls favoring Obama from Virginia but an average of the credible polls there (Purple, WeAskAmerica and Rasmussen) shows it as 48.0 percent Obama to 45.7 percent Romney. That is statically a tie and the undecided voters will swing Virginia to Romney in November. North Carolina is a similar story but Romney leads 1.8 percent in the RCP average of polls there despite the inclusion of 1-2 skewed polls. Romney will win North Carolina.
Florida is considered to the be big prize among Southern swing states. There are also many skewed polls included in the RCP average of polls for Florida. The legitimate polls there (Purple, WeAskAmerica, Gravis, Rasmussen, AIF/McLaughlin) would average in a tie of 47.6 percent for each candidate. The undecided voters will decide the Florida vote in favor of Mitt Romney.
Midwest: Indiana and Missouri are likely Republican for Romney while Michigan and Minnesota lean toward Obama. Obama's home state of Illinois is solid blue. Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota are all likely Romney states. The leaves this region's swing states of Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa. The RCP average for Ohio has many skewed polls as well. The credible polls in Ohio (Purple, Rasmussen and Gravis) would show Obama 47.3 to Romney 44.3 percent. This is basically tied and the undecided voters will break it in favor Romney.
There are no recent polls for Michigan that appear credible there for this states will be classified a toss-up for the purposes of this analysis.
The RCP average of Wisconsin includes several skewed polls and the latest poll from Rasmussen poll showing the race within the poll's margin of error. Remember, the undecided voters tip Wisconsin narrowly to Romney.
The only recent and credible poll in Iowa is the Rasmussen poll of Iowa showing Romney leading 47 to 44 percent. Iowa will definitely go for Romney in November.
Southwest: Texas and Arizona are going solidly for Romney while the more competitive New Mexico leaning toward Obama.
Rocky Mountains: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming and Utah are all strongly for Romney. Nevada and Colorado are the swing states in the Rocky Mountains. While the RCP average of polls in Colorado includes several skewed polls, an average of the Purple, Rasmussen and Denver Post/SurveyUSA polls shows the race to be Obama 46.7 percent to Romney 46.0 percent Romney. That is a tie statistically, and it will lead to undecided voters tipping Colorado to Romney. In Nevada, the Rasmussen and Las Vegas Review Journal/SurveyUSA polls both show Obama at 47 percent to Romney 45 percent. Given that this is a tie and the known effect of undecided voters, Nevada will also side with Romney in November.
Pacific: California is solidly for Obama while Washington state is likely to be won by Obama, and Oregon is still leaning to Obama.
Alaska will be a solid Romney state while Hawaii will be strongly for Obama.
The result is Mitt Romney leaning the states above showing various shades of red or pink that are worth 301 electoral votes while Obama leads in the blue states worth 221 electoral votes. The lone toss-up state is Michigan which is worth 16 electoral votes.
All three debates between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama have yet to come and could move poll numbers significantly. Additionally there are still more than six weeks left until election day and many events or other issues, or gaffes by candidates, can effect the picture of the election between now and November.
The pattern of skewed polls, most of the commissioned by the mainstream media, continue to paint a much more favorable electoral picture for Obama than that shown by accurate polling. This leads to many others in the media to project very favorable maps and projections for Obama but those doing so fail to realize or accept how heavily-skewed polls distort any average or analysis that relies on them. **Yep!
http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-winning-301-electoral-votes-as-projected-by-polling-data-1
Lindaland
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posted October 18, 2012 02:22 PM
posted October 18, 2012 02:28 PM
posted October 18, 2012 07:12 PM
posted October 18, 2012 10:24 PM
