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Author Topic:   Sea Levels Are Falling!
AcousticGod
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posted November 10, 2013 03:18 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Saying "blockheads" a bunch of times doesn't help you look smarter when you've gone against science for years and years.

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Randall
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posted November 10, 2013 04:02 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Sea levels have been rising naturally since the last ice age (an inch or two a century). My point is that there has not been an alarming rise beyond natural variation like the alarmists want you to believe, and also that the way they measure it is bogus. In recent history, there has been no rise, but actually a small decline. Still, it is all natural variability and absolutely nothing to be alarmed about.

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Catalina
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posted November 10, 2013 04:35 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Tricky argument either way...as I tried to point out, averages can be v misleading. The "average" over 8500 years doesn't explain the creation of the English channel which was not there 8500 years ago.

There is so much we don't know...in the meantime I am all for cleaning up our act for whatever reason one chooses. In every field of endeavour the desire to hoard and control is rampant and causing destruction and pollution. I am pretty sure that the warm weather foliage found in Britain by the Romans means heat is not the problem. However food and water fit for consumption are at risk due to the side effects of our priorities

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jwhop
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posted November 11, 2013 07:57 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
"Saying "blockheads" a bunch of times doesn't help you look smarter when you've gone against science for years and years."...acoustic

This is not a "smart" response to the factual data that sea levels have been rising for most of the last 25,000 years...so rising sea levels are nothing new. In fact, it's the typical scientifically ignorant "blockhead" response.

Get back to me when you figure out what kicked earth's climate out of the last Ice Age and started the 25,000 year warming trend.

Hint, it wasn't elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide..CO2 in earth's atmosphere.

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Randall
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posted November 11, 2013 09:50 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Originally posted by jwhop:
"Saying "blockheads" a bunch of times doesn't help you look smarter when you've gone against science for years and years."...acoustic

This is not a "smart" response to the factual data that sea levels have been rising for most of the last 25,000 years...so rising sea levels are nothing new. In fact, it's the typical scientifically ignorant "blockhead" response.

Get back to me when you figure out what kicked earth's climate out of the last Ice Age and started the 25,000 year warming trend.

Hint, it wasn't elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide..CO2 in earth's atmosphere.


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Catalina
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posted November 11, 2013 11:42 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Actually the practice of averaging, as I tried to point out, is misleading. In a study published on realclimate.org it is explained...that sea levels were fairly consistent from 200-1000 ad, then during the medieval warm period they rose on average 6cm per year until the mini ice age when they stagnated again until the late 19th c, since when they have been rising again.

So yes, on average the rise has been so many cms per year, but it didn't happen in a steady way but fits and starts.

And excess CO2 has been present in every warming period studied by our scientists. Was it msnmade? No, probably not before the Industrial revolution. Does that mean we can't do anything about it? Or that we shouldn't try?

I suspect deforestation has as much to do with it as industry, but both contribute and could be reversed without hurting anyone but the corporations who are making a literal killing and buying up our govts...

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Randall
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posted November 11, 2013 11:50 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
There's no such thing as "excess" CO2. We have the amount we are supposed to have at any given time as a byproduct of a lush green Earth.

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Catalina
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posted November 11, 2013 12:31 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Catalina     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Fair enough, bad word choice. Call it noticeably higher levels...the data remains the same.

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NoRainNoRainbows
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posted November 12, 2013 03:33 AM     Click Here to See the Profile for NoRainNoRainbows     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote

*elbow nudges whomever is sitting next to her and "it's all of the above, the answer to these questions is all of the above"

u guys know about tides and land reclamations etc....the sea levels are always going up and always going down...on the one hand in antquity it could be that during the times Homer wrote the Iliad that the seas were much shallower than now given some of his descriptions ....on the other hand, i do think the deluge was a fact of life in some episode of Earth's history, and no doubt the water levels rose up then...on astrology forum, i have to say, it's water, it's always going up and down, we should start worrying if it ever got stable.

also earth isn't as lush as before, a...have you seen how much deforstation has been done to the Amazons (Earth's lung if you will) in just the past 80 years, meanwhile pollution in China is so terrible, that just last week they found their youngest lung cancer victim yet...so maybe it's not a 'sky is falling' problem, but there definetly is something out of balance with Earth's ecosystem atm....but i think nothing that can't be fixed...

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AcousticGod
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posted November 12, 2013 01:44 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
In recent history, there has been no rise, but actually a small decline.

What's your source?

quote:
This is not a "smart" response to the factual data that sea levels have been rising for most of the last 25,000 years...so rising sea levels are nothing new. In fact, it's the typical scientifically ignorant "blockhead" response.

You know...I didn't see a source for your information either. Can't quite manage to feel dumb around you.

quote:
Get back to me when you figure out what kicked earth's climate out of the last Ice Age and started the 25,000 year warming trend.

How about YOU get back to ME when you start quoting something verifiable?

Saying that sea levels have been rising for 25,000 years doesn't invalidate the scientific notion that sea levels have accelerated in their rising in modern times, does it? There's absolutely not even a smidgen of disproof of anything in saying that. Are you starting to feel smart?

Further, the melting of the ice ended 6000 years ago, and only recently started rising again:

    2011, Oceanography 24(2):80–93, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2011.29
    Nineteenth and Twentieth Century Changes in Sea Level

    Abstract

    Following the Last Glacial Maximum (25,000–20,000 years ago), sea level rose at rates on the order of several tens of millimeters per year at times, and increased overall by over 130 m. However, melting of the great ice sheets was largely complete by 6,000 years ago, and it is believed that sea level did not rise significantly again until recently. The rates of sea level change during the last few centuries and in recent decades can be measured in units of millimeters per year and are particularly important in understanding present-day climate change. We now have a range of techniques with which sea level changes can be measured and thus studied more intensively than before, as a global average and in each region. This article introduces each of the main data sets and presents the primary research findings. It is hoped that a greater understanding of the reasons for past observed sea level change, discussed elsewhere in this issue, will lead to better estimation of the changes likely to occur in the future. http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/24-2_woodworth.html

No cause for concern, of course.

    (From: Advancing the Science of Climate Change 2010, National Academies Press)
    however, there is widespread consensus that substantial long-term sea level rise will continue for centuries to come (Overpeck and Weiss, 2009). A considerable amount of sea level rise is to be expected simply from past CO2 emissions as the ocean heat content catches up with radiative forcing (see Chapter 6); furthermore, the risk of ice sheet collapse, and the attendant large rates of sea level rise, will increase if GHG concentrations in the atmosphere continue to increase. http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12782&page=245

    Description

    Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for--and in many cases is already affecting--a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12782

quote:
There's no such thing as "excess" CO2. We have the amount we are supposed to have at any given time as a byproduct of a lush green Earth.

quote:
Fair enough, bad word choice. Call it noticeably higher levels...the data remains the same.

I think "excess" is a fair way of talking about extra levels of CO2 that wouldn't otherwise be there.

Regarding sea levels, I was just reading in Fast Company that Dutch companies are making a killing on helping the rest of the world with water and flooding issues, which are increasing. http://www.fastcompany.com/3018621/against-the-tide

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 02:05 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Extra levels of CO2 that wouldn't be there? But humans contribute so little CO2.

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 02:08 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I've shown you data that sea levels are not rising in recent times, but it doesn't matter to you unless it comes from one of your doomsday prophets. Local weather patterns (flooding included) have nothing to do with the issue.

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AcousticGod
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posted November 12, 2013 02:22 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Humans don't contribute "so little" CO2.

quote:
I've shown you data that sea levels are not rising in recent times

I don't think you have. You even started this thread, not with article confirming "Sea Levels Are Falling," but rather that sea level rise is decelerating.

I have no "doomsday prophets." The same as always.

quote:
Local weather patterns (flooding included) have nothing to do with the issue.

Who's talking about "local" weather patterns? Re-read. Understand.

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 02:33 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Part of an earlier quote from this thread:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated in 2007, “Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003. The rate was faster over 1993 to 2003: about 3.1 mm per year.” This translates to a 100-year rise of only 7 inches and 12 inches, far below the dire predictions of the climate alarmists.

But three millimeters is about the thickness of two dimes. Can scientists really measure a change in sea level over the course of a year, averaged across the world, which is two dimes thick?

Today, sea level is measured with satellite radar altimeters. Satellites bounce radar waves off the surface of the ocean to measure the distance. Scientific organizations, such as the Sea Level Research Group at the University of Colorado (CU), use the satellite data to estimate ocean rise. The CU team estimates current ocean rise at 3.2 millimeters per year.

The organizations AVISO (Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic Data) of France, CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization) of Australia, and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) of the United States agree with the University of Colorado that seas are rising three millimeters per year. Given the huge natural variation in global sea level, the three millimeter number is incredible. The fact that four different organizations have arrived at the same number is suspect.

As Dr. Willie Soon of Harvard shows, ocean level variation is large and affected by many factors. If temperatures rise, water expands, adding to sea level rise. If icecaps melt, levels rise, but if icecaps grow due to increased snowfall, levels fall. If ocean saltiness changes, the water volume will also change.

The land itself moves continuously. Some shorelines are rising and some are subsiding. The land around Hudson Bay in Canada is rising, freed of ice from the last ice age. In contrast, the area around New Orleans is sinking. Long-term movement of Earth’s tectonic plates also changes sea level.

Tides are a major source of ocean variation, primarily caused by the gravitational pull of the moon, the sun, and the rotation of the Earth. Ocean water “sloshes” from shore to shore, with tides changing as much as 38 feet per day at the Bay of Fundy in Nova Scotia. The global average tide range is about one meter, but this daily change is still 300 times the three-millimeter change that scientists claim to be able to measure over an entire year.

Storms and weather are major factors affecting satellite measurements. Wave heights change by meters each day, dwarfing the annual rise in ocean level. Winds also change the height of the sea. The easterly wind of a strong La Niña pushes seas at Singapore to a meter higher than in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Satellites themselves have error bias. Satellite specifications claim a measurement accuracy of about one or two centimeters. How can scientists then measure an annual change of three millimeters, which is almost ten times smaller than the error in daily measurements? Measuring tools typically must have accuracy ten times better than the quantity to be measured, not ten times worse. Dr. Carl Wunsch of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology commented on the satellite data in 2007, “It remains possible that the database is insufficient to compute mean sea level trends with the accuracy necessary to discuss the impact of global warming—as disappointing as this conclusion may be.”

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 02:34 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
And in particular, this:

Satellites themselves have error bias. Satellite specifications claim a measurement accuracy of about one or two centimeters. How can scientists then measure an annual change of three millimeters, which is almost ten times smaller than the error in daily measurements? Measuring tools typically must have accuracy ten times better than the quantity to be measured, not ten times worse. Dr. Carl Wunsch of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology commented on the satellite data in 2007, “It remains possible that the database is insufficient to compute mean sea level trends with the accuracy necessary to discuss the impact of global warming—as disappointing as this conclusion may be.”

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AcousticGod
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posted November 12, 2013 02:42 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
I did answer that article, did I not? It does not say that sea levels are rising, but only attempts to throw doubt on the accuracy of information collected. Every scientific agency in that article supports global warming...even Dr. Wunsch.

That paragraph in specific doesn't give you a full view of the data either as one would notice if they went to AVISO or CU's website. I already cleared that up for you. I even posted a graphic that shows the +/- amount (0.4mm/yr).

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 02:51 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
You conveniently ignored the measurement part. Yes, they all want to believe in sea level rise, but their measurements cannot prove it. This is what happens when scientists turn from empiricism to faith.

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 03:25 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
When you presume to "already clear something up for me," it should be noted that just because you post a graph from one of your alarmists, it doesn't clear up anything--much like when I post journal articles and statements from scientists who are specialists in their field that refute the man-made warming theory, but you dismiss.

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AcousticGod
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posted November 12, 2013 03:52 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
quote:
Yes, they all want to believe in sea level rise, but their measurements cannot prove it.

That's false. Where do you get that idea? I specifically remember looking at what these agencies take into account when doing their calculations, because that was the premise of your article --that they weren't accounting for this or that variable. Go to those links. They mention plenty of variables they take into consideration.

quote:
This is what happens when scientists turn from empiricism to faith.

You're attempting the opposite: faith into empiricism. Understand yourself and what you think.

quote:
When you presume to "already clear something up for me," it should be noted that just because you post a graph from one of your alarmists, it doesn't clear up anything--much like when I post journal articles and statements from scientists who are specialists in their field that refute the man-made warming theory, but you dismiss.

It would be one thing if I were dismissing without reason, but time and time again I put a good faith effort into showing you that reason, and you disregard it. This is a one way street with you, however. You put absolutely ZERO effort into understanding what you're talking about. You seem to think it's cool just to keep spouting nonsense, because you had an authority confirm your beliefs.

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 03:55 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
The last statement is a perfect description of yourself (except that you should make authority plural).

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AcousticGod
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posted November 12, 2013 04:19 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for AcousticGod     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Actually, it's not for a few reasons:

1. I'm not "spouting nonsense."
2. I'm not the bearer of a belief, any more than a nonfiction book. I post fact in relation to your premise. I'm passing along information you would already know if you had an open or scientific mind. My hands are only on the collection of data.
3. If I were conveying a belief it wouldn't be about global warming. It would be about your ability to think critically and gather information.

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 09:14 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Interesting that Wunsch is a believer, yet even he states that the measurements are flawed.

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jwhop
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posted November 12, 2013 11:20 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for jwhop     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
"This is not a "smart" response to the factual data that sea levels have been rising for most of the last 25,000 years...so rising sea levels are nothing new."

"You know...I didn't see a source for your information either. Can't quite manage to feel dumb around you."...acoustic

Duh, I suspect you're dumb in whatever room you find yourself in acoustic. I see little hope you'll ever be able to pull your head out.

More evidence you're a scientific illiterate. Apparently you don't know the earth was locked in ice sheets that extended south into the plains of the United states during the last Ice Age. Let me ask you, where do you think all the water from that melting ice from all over the northern hemisphere went when the sun started emitting more energy and warming the earth about 25,000 years ago?

You are undoubtedly one of the most uninformed/misinformed members ever to post on this forum.

Paper: Sea Level Rise Not Accelerating

A paper published yesterday in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, confirms other studies of tide gauge records which show that there has been no statistically significant acceleration in sea level rise over the past 100+ years, in contrast to statements of the IPCC and Al Gore. Sea levels have been rising naturally since the peak of the last major ice age 20,000 years ago, and the rate of rise began to decelerate about 8,000 years ago:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/08/paper-sea-level-rise-not-accelerating.html

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 11:46 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Thanks, Jwhop! That's a great journal article, and the author has published 800 peer-reviewed journal articles. Good stuff!

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Randall
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posted November 12, 2013 11:46 PM     Click Here to See the Profile for Randall     Edit/Delete Message   Reply w/Quote
Here's another one:
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/05/inconvenient-truth-sea-level-rise-is.html?m=1

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