posted July 25, 2014 01:13 PM            

But ‘Enthusiasm Gap’ Narrower than in 2010

The Republican Party holds a clear advantage in voter engagement in this fall’s midterm elections, according to a new national survey by the Pew Research Center. Yet GOP voters are not as enthused and engaged as they were at this point in the midterm campaign four years ago, prior to the Republican Party winning control of the House of Representatives, or as Democratic voters were in 2006, before Democrats gained control of Congress.

The latest survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted July 8-14 among 1,805 adults, including 1,420 registered voters, finds neither party has an advantage in voter preferences. Currently, 45% say if the election were held today they would support the Republican in their district or lean toward the Republican, while 47% favor the Democrat or lean Democratic.More Modest Enthusiasm Gap than in 2010, 2006

The two parties also ran even on the so-called “generic ballot” throughout much of the 2010 campaign. The GOP’s victory in the national popular vote in 2010 – and their gain of 63 seats in the House – was ultimately fueled by a sharp rise in turnout by the Republican base, particularly among conservatives and older voters.

Today, the Republicans lead on a number of key engagement indicators, though in some cases by smaller margins than four years ago. Currently, 45% of registered voters who plan to support the Republican in their district say they are more enthusiastic about voting than in prior congressional elections; that compares with 37% of those who plan to vote for the Democratic candidate. The GOP had a 13-point enthusiasm advantage at this point in the midterm campaign four years ago (55% to 42%) and the Democrats held a 17-point advantage eight years ago (47% to 30%).

However, as many voters who support the Republican in their district say they are “absolutely certain” to vote this fall as said this in June 2010. Three-quarters of Republican voters (76%) say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 67% of Democratic voters. Four years ago, 77% of Republican voters and 64% of Democratic voters said they were absolutely certain to vote in the fall.

Barack Obama is as powerful a motivating factor for Republican voters as he was in 2010: about half (51%) of those who say they will vote Republican this fall consider their vote as a vote “against” Obama, little changed from June 2010 (52%). And Obama has become a less positive factor for Democrats – 36% of those who plan to vote for the Democrat in their district view their vote as being “for” Obama, down from 44% four years ago.

However, slightly more Democratic voters say the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote than did so at this point in 2010. Currently, 62% of Democratic voters say partisan control of Congress will be a factor in their vote, compared with 57% four years ago. In this regard, the Democrats have caught up with the Republicans: 62% of Republican voters also say which party controls Congress will matter in their vote.

The survey finds that the public continues to hold Congress in extremely low regard. Just 28% of Americans view Congress favorably and a record-high 55% say the current Congress has accomplished less than usual. By a wide margin (44% to 28%), those who say Congress has accomplished less than usual blame Republican leaders rather than Democratic leaders for this.

Anti-incumbent sentiment also remains widespread: Only about half of all registered voters (48%) want to see their own representative reelected and just half as many (24%) would like to see most members of Congress reelected. These also are close to two-decade lows in Pew Research Center surveys.

Yet unlike in the previous two midterms, anti-incumbent sentiment is shared fairly equally among both Democratic and Republican voters. Today, 38% of those who support the GOP candidate in their district say their own representative does not deserve reelection; nearly as many Democrats (34%) share that view. In 2010, when Democrats still controlled Congress, twice as many GOP voters as Democratic voters wanted to see their own representative defeated (44% vs. 22%); in 2006, when the GOP controlled Congress, anti-incumbent sentiment was far more widespread among Democrats (39%) than Republicans (22%).

However, even in the pivotal midterms of 2010 and 2006 when anti-incumbent feeling was prevalent, most members of Congress were reelected. The 2010 midterm was a high turnover election: 54 incumbents, all of them Democrats, were defeated for reelection. That was the highest number in half a century, according to Vital Statistics on American Politics. Even so, 91% of all House members won reelection that year.

There are some indications that anti-incumbent sentiment can be partly explained by voters’ negative reactions toward Congress generally, rather than specific critiques of their own representative. Only about half (53%) of registered voters are able to correctly identify the party of their congressional representative; 22% incorrectly identify their representative’s party and 26% offer no response. 1

posted July 25, 2014 02:17 PM            

With four months to go before the 2014 midterm elections, the preferences of registered voters are about evenly divided: 47% say they plan to vote for the Democratic Party’s candidate in their district, while 45% say they plan to back the Republican Party’s candidate. There has been little change in voter preferences over the four previous Pew Research Center surveys measuring 2014 midterm voting intentions.

There are wide gender, educational and income differences in voter preferences. Republicans currently hold a 10-point lead among men (50% to 40%), while Democrats have a 12-point advantage among women (52% to 40%).

In recent elections, voters with post-graduate degrees have emerged as reliable Democratic voters: In the current survey, 55% of voters with post-graduate degrees favor the Democrat in their district, or lean Democratic, while 38% support the Republican or lean Republican. Voters with less education are evenly divided.

Middle-income voters – those with family incomes between $50,000 and $74,999 – favor the GOP candidate by a wide margin (57% to 33%). Democrats hold a 13-point advantage (52% to 39%) among voters with incomes of less than $30,000, while voters in other income categories are divided. (For a closer look at midterm vote preferences, see the detailed table that accompanies this report.)

More Enthusiastic than Usual about Midterm Vote?

Overall, 40% of voters say that they are more enthusiastic about voting than in previous midterm elections, however, at least as many (45%) say they are less enthusiastic than usual; 13% volunteer that they feel the same about voting in this congressional election as in previous ones.

The percentage saying they are less enthusiastic about voting than usual is as high as it has been since 1998, in the midterm elections held in Bill Clinton’s second term, following the scandal surrounding his affair with Monica Lewinsky.

GOP Voters Less Enthusiastic than in 2010, Little Change among Democrats At this point in the 2010 elections enthusiasm was stronger: 46% said they were more enthusiastic about voting, while fewer (36%) said they were less enthusiastic.

About half of Republican voters (49%) say they are more enthusiastic about voting this year than in the past, compared with 39% of Democrats. While Republicans maintain an enthusiasm gap over Democrats, the size of this advantage is more modest than in 2010.

Conservative Republicans are 10 points less likely to express greater midterm voting enthusiasm today than in 2010 (49% vs. 59%). By contrast, 41% of liberal Democrats say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the 2014 midterms; in 2010, 37% said this.

Enthusiasm among independents is lower today than in 2010 (33% vs. 42%) and has ticked down among both Democratic-leaning and Republican-leaning independent voters.

Party Control of Congress a Factor in Midterm Vote

Nearly six-in-ten registered voters (58%) say the issue of which party controls Congress will be a factor in their vote this fall. This percentage is identical to opinion in June of 2010 and 2006. More say party control is an issue for them at this point in the 2014 midterm cycle than said this in the summer of 2002 (47%) and 1998 (45%).

In the current survey, about equal percentages of Republican (67%) and Democratic (66%) voters say party control of Congress will matter to their vote. This marks a shift from 2010 when more Republicans (73%) than Democrats (60%) cited control of Congress as a factor in their vote.

Independents are less likely than Republicans and Democrats to say they will consider party control of Congress in their vote: 45% say this will matter to them, while 52% say it won’t.

More Say Vote Is Against – than For – Obama

About half of voters say Obama will be a factor in their vote this fall, with somewhat more saying they consider their ballot a vote against Obama (29%) than for him (19%); 49% say the president won’t be much of a factor in their decision. Opinion is little changed from April of this year.

In June 2010, opinion was similarly distributed: 28% considered their vote as a vote against Obama, 23% a vote for him and 47% said he wasn’t much of a factor.

While more say they will cast their midterm ballot as a vote against, than for, the president, opinion is not as negative toward Obama as it was toward George W. Bush in 2006. Obama Has Greater Impact on the Votes of Republicans than Democrats Eight years ago, 38% of voters said they were voting against Bush with their midterm vote, compared with just 15% who said they were voting for him.

A 55%-majority of Republican voters say they think of their vote for Congress as a vote against Barack Obama, including 61% of conservative Republicans. A smaller percentage of Democrats say they consider their midterm vote as one for Obama: 40% say this, with little difference in the views of liberal Democrats and conservative and moderate Democrats.

In 2006, Democrats were even more likely to cite opposition to Bush as a factor in their vote than Republicans are to say this about Obama today. Eight years ago, 65% of Democratic voters considered their midterm ballot to be a vote against Bush, as did 39% of independent voters.

posted July 25, 2014 02:41 PM            

At this point in 2014, anti-incumbent sentiment is as high as it has ever been in midterm elections dating back to 1994.Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Higher than at Similar Points in Recent Midterms

Overall, 36% of voters say they do not want to see their own representative reelected to Congress, while 48% say they would like to see them win reelection. In the wave elections of 2010 and 2006, the percentage wanting their own representative to be unseated stood at 34% and 32% in June of each year.

In addition, fully 69% say they do not want most members of Congress to be reelected this year; just 24% say they want them back. In June of 2010, 56% wanted to see most members of Congress lose their jobs; in June of 2006, 57% of voters said this.Anti-Incumbent Sentiment Now Crosses Partisan, Ideological Lines

The current anti-incumbent sentiment is being driven by voters across partisan groups. About equal percentages of Republicans (34%) and Democrats (32%) say they do not want their own representative reelected to Congress. Independents (44%) are even more likely to take this view.

This stands in contrast to 2010, when Republicans were much more likely to express anti-incumbent views than Democrats, and 2006, when Democrats were more likely to want their representative to change.Support for Incumbents Strongest among Voters of the Same Party as Their Representatives

Those living in districts represented by a member of their own party are, perhaps not surprisingly, more likely to support their member’s reelection. In districts with a Republican congressperson, nearly six-in-ten Republicans (58%) want to see their representative reelected, compared with 25% who do not. In districts represented by a Democrat, 64% of Democrats want to see the incumbent win and 25% do not.

Voters represented by someone of the opposite party are less supportive of their incumbent congressperson. Still, nearly half (47%) of Democratic voters in Republican-represented districts say their lawmaker deserves reelection. That compares with just 34% of Republican voters in districts represented by a Democrat.

posted July 25, 2014 02:58 PM            

Voters view national issues as their top concern when it comes to factors influencing their midterm vote.

Overall, 34% say national issues will make the biggest difference in their vote for Congress, while slightly fewer name local and state issues (28%) or a candidate’s character and experience (27%). Very few say they will be voting primarily on a candidate’s political party (7%).

The factors influencing voters’ midterm choice in 2014 are similar to those registered in the summer of 2010, when voters also viewed the election through a national lens. In 2002 and 1998, there was relatively more emphasis on state and local issues and a candidate’s character and experience.

Nearly four-in-ten Republican voters (39%) say national issues will make the biggest difference in how they vote for congress this year, compared with fewer (28%) Democratic voters. Similarly, more Republicans (32%) than Democrats (21%) cite a candidate’s character and experience as the top factor informing their vote.

posted July 25, 2014 02:59 PM            

At this stage of the 2014 election campaign, Republicans hold an all-important engagement edge over Democrats. Overall, 77% of Republican voters say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in the election this November, compared with somewhat fewer Democratic voters (70%) who say the same. Republicans also are 9 points more likely than Democrats to say they are following news about the midterm elections either very or fairly closely (56% vs. 47%).

However, while Republicans lead Democrats on key engagement indicators, their advantage is somewhat more modest than at the same point in the 2010 elections. In June 2010, Republicans were 12 points more likely than Democrats to say there were absolutely certain to vote (77% vs. 65%) and 14 points more likely to be following election news (64% vs. 50%).Tea Party Republicans: High Levels of Engagement, But Somewhat Lower than in 2010

In fact, the enthusiasm of Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party – a group that had major impact on the 2010 elections – has dipped on some measures when compared with four years ago.

posted July 25, 2014 03:02 PM            

As the midterm election approaches, public views of Congress remain very negative. And a record share of Americans – 55% – say the current Congress has accomplished less than recent sessions.Views of Congress: 1985-2014

Overall, just 28% of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of Congress. Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) have an unfavorable view. Views of the institution have improved, though only modestly, since reaching an all-time low of 21% a year ago. Congress’s favorability rating has been in negative territory for nearly five years.

Just 30% of Democrats, 29% of Republicans and 24% of independents view Congress favorably. Majorities in all three groups – 65% of Democrats, 68% of Republicans and 73% of independents – view Congress unfavorably.Low Favorability Ratings for Congress among Members of Both Parties

Republicans’ views of Congress became more favorable after the GOP won control of the House in 2010. In March 2011, 38% of Republicans had a favorable impression of Congress, up from 22% the previous July. Even at that point, however, 55% had an unfavorable view of the institution.

Among Democrats, favorable views of Congress also have slipped since early 2011; in March of that year, 37% viewed the institution favorably.

posted July 25, 2014 03:05 PM            

Americans see the 113th Congress as one of the least productive in almost 20 years. The share who say that this Congress accomplished less than its recent predecessors stands at 55%, up from 33% in 2010 and 43% in 2006.Majority Sees Congress as Less Productive than Usual

Partisans Agree Congress Has Done Less than UsualRepublicans (57%), Democrats (52%) and independents (58%) largely agree that the current Congress has accomplished less than usual. The public’s assessments of congressional accomplishments are less partisan today than at about this point during any midterm year since 1998.

Among those who say the current Congress has accomplished less, 44% say that Republican leaders are mostly to blame, 28% say Democratic leaders, and 22% volunteer that both parties’ leaders are to blame.

In 2010, those who said Congress had accomplished less –a group mostly consisting of Republicans –placed more of the blame on Democratic leaders (49%). During the 2006 campaign, when more Democrats said Congress had accomplished less, a majority blamed Republican leaders (56%).

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans (64%) say that Democratic leaders are mostly to blame, while 21% place responsibility on both parties’ leaders. Democrats overwhelmingly blame the Republican Party’s leaders, including fully 86% of liberal Democrats.

While Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party overwhelmingly blame Democratic leaders for the lack of congressional accomplishments (73%), non-Tea Party Republicans have more divided views: 48% say Democratic leaders are mostly to blame, but 29% volunteer that both parties’ leaders are to blame and 14% mostly blame GOP leaders.