posted September 06, 2016 03:22 PM            

There are three big shifts between the two CNN polls. First, Trump improved his standing among independents. Second, he has consolidated support among Republicans. And, third, the new poll moves from registered voters to likely voters.

The combination of those things is significant. The transition to a likely voter pool tends to favor Republicans for the simple reason that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats. There's a correlation between tendency to vote and income, race and age. Older, whiter, wealthier Americans vote more regularly — and when they vote, they vote more for Republican candidates. So once CNN moved to likely voters, there's a natural shift toward Trump.

But the shift is bigger than that, as we can see when we compare the network's July poll with its new one. Trump improved dramatically with independents, gaining 17 points just among registered voters. He's improved with whites without a college degree, a bastion of his support. He's improved with men by 11 points. Again: That's among registered voters. When you consider the likely voter pool, the changes are bigger.

In July, Trump got 84 percent of the Republican vote. Among likely voters in the new survey, he gets 93 percent — just shy of the percentage of support Clinton gets from Democrats.

Potentially more worrisome for Clinton supporters is that Trump's supporters are more likely to say they're enthusiastic about voting. More than half of Trump voters say they're very or extremely enthusiastic about going out to vote. A fifth of Clinton backers say they're not enthusiastic about voting at all.

If the national race is as close as this poll suggests by November, such an enthusiasm gap could spell bad news for Clinton. Since Democrats (often younger and nonwhite) vote less regularly, Clinton will need people to feel inspired to go vote. This poll suggests that her base doesn't really feel that way.

posted September 07, 2016 08:16 AM            

quote:

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Originally posted by Randall:
She's ahead with electoral votes, but the debates will put an end to that. You have two months to come to terms with it, because Trump will be the next POTUS.

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sure Randall, sure.