posted November 22, 2016 10:19 AM            

So, if you followed that "sage" advice, you've lost your as s. Starting on November 9, the day after Trump's election, the stock market has zoomed higher, much higher and set a all time high in market evaluation. If you sold "Short" you lost your as s. If you bought "PUTS" you lost your investment.

Market Gurus are a dime a dozen.

None of this obscures the fact that stocks..in general are "overbought" and that some stocks are selling at ridiculous multiples of their earnings...Price Earning Ratios.

Dow breaks above 19,000, S&P jumps over 2,200 as stocks hit record highs
Fred Imbert
23 Mins Ago
CNBC

U.S. equities opened higher on Tuesday, hitting new all-time highs, as investors awaited housing data and kept an eye on President-elect Donald Trump's policy agenda.

The Dow Jones industrial average broke above 19,000 for the first time ever shortly after the open, with Boeing contributing the most gains. The S&P 500 traded over 2,200 for the first time, as real estate and energy led advancers. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.3 percent, also trading at fresh record highs.

"Global equity markets are reacting positively to new all-time highs in the SPX," said Katie Stockton, chief technical strategist at BTIG, in a note. "Momentum is proving strong enough to overrule overbought conditions, so we think it is appropriate to be buying breakouts."

The three major indexes closed at record levels on Wednesday, along with the small-caps Russell 2000, which continues to outperform the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq since Nov. 8.

But "don't forget, we spend about three months consolidating before this breakout after the election," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Baird. "From a time standpoint, this may be just the beginning."

"We are in a transition period on a number of fronts. First, we're moving from an interest-rate driven market into an earnings-driven market," he said. "Also, something most people are missing, is we're getting a more business-friendly administration."

The Federal Reserve has indicated numerous times its desire to normalize monetary policy, and it's all but certain the central bank will take a step in that direction next month. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, market expectations for an interest rate hike in December were more than 100 percent.

A trader wears a hat that reads 'DOW 19,000' on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., on Monday, Nov. 21, 2016.

Meanwhile, S&P 500 earnings grew for the first time in more than a year. According to data compiled by The Earnings Scout, earnings per share had grown 6.21 percent as of Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Stocks have also been bolstered by Trump's surprising win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, as expectations for deregulation in a number of sectors and tax cuts have increased optimism in the U.S. stock market.

On Monday, Trump expanded on his policy agenda, which includes withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). The trade pact was a centerpiece of the Obama administration's "pivot" towards Asia and was meant to solidify the U.S.'s presence in what is considered by many American companies as the most economically dynamic part in the world.

Trump described the TPP as "a potential disaster" for the U.S. in the video, adding "we will negotiate fair bilateral trade deals that bring jobs and industry back onto American shores."

In economic news, existing home sales data for October are due at 10 a.m. There are no other major data due Tuesday, but Wednesday will see several reports released, as the U.S. will celebrate the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

"The commuter trains should start thinning out by this afternoon as traders take advantage of the Thanksgiving holiday. The price action for the next several days should therefore put investors to sleep which will preclude the reprise of any deleterious amount of volatility," Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities, said in a note.

In corporate news, medical equipment maker Medtronic reported mixed quarterly results. Medtronic also cut its full-year forecast, as customers delay purchases ahead of new products entering the marketplace.

posted November 23, 2016 05:51 AM            

And even now, those holding shorts will make money if they carry the shorts as Trump's economic decisions in January will see initial sell off, especially if there is a rate hike. Trump's advisors are planning a 1 trillion dollar infrastructure spend, after Bonds started tanking.

Housing market will tank shortly and by summer 2017, expect Dow Jones to be around the 16000 mark. Upper band is 20000 tops, there is no more Quantitative Easing.

However, if Trump permits a QE5, then that is the time to exit shorts and go long with Calls for an easy target of 24000 on Dow Jones. All rallies in the past couple of years are liquidity driven or commodity driven, no fresh growth has occurred in any sector.

posted November 30, 2016 09:57 AM            

You don't have to call it The Trump Rally.
You could call it the Hillary Lost Rally.

Trump unleashed the stock market’s ‘animal spirits’
Nov 30, 2016 9:44 a.m. ET

Crude oil joins the Trump party on Wall Street; Dow industrials and S&P 500 both touched new all-time highs in Wednesday trade, extending a record run for equities.

posted December 06, 2016 06:27 AM            

Dow notches new record closing high as Street shrugs off Italian referendum
Fred Imbert

The Dow Jones industrial average gained around 45 points, notching record highs on an intraday and closing basis, with Goldman Sachs contributing the most gains. The S&P 500 advanced 0.58 percent, with financials, information technology and consumer discretionary leading advancers. The Nasdaq composite outperformed, closing 1 percent higher.

posted December 06, 2016 01:03 PM            

You know... You might want to prepare yourself, 'in case' this is a 'set up' before a huge fall. Just because the corporations win, doesn't necessarily mean that they 'share' their winnings?

Always better when you're IN the immediate corporate dole-out circles. Huge immediate bonuses, etc.

Other than that? You own stock?... hmmmmm, you'd better hope you can ~trust what you're being told? ref Bernie Madeoff who made off with lots of people's wealth? (LOL)

posted December 07, 2016 12:04 PM            

Trump laid out how government actually works, at least for those who were paying attention. It's not been working the way it's supposed to because it's "rigged". That's why tens of millions of Americans are left scratching their heads when their House member or Senators do the exact opposite of what they campaigned on. Trump blew the lid off the fact they don't work for the people who elected them. They really work for their big campaign donors, lobbyists and special interests. Now, I see Trump holding their feet to the fire(s) and forcing them to live up to the issues they've campaigned on for years...at least Republicans. Lower taxes, cut business regulations, reduce the size, scope and cost of government, repeal and replace ObamaCare, ax illegal immigration, build a border wall...or finish the fencing that's already started in some areas, fix the VA, rebuild the US military and get tough on terrorism and terrorists. Now, they have no further excuses for failing to do what they promised voters they would do...if only voters would elect them.

Corporation don't control their stock prices. Hundreds of millions of individual and institutional investors determine what a share of stock in any company listed on the stock exchanges is worth..today..right now, this instant. Their perception of what a share of stock in say...General Motors is worth might change in the next minute and the price will go up or down accordingly. In fact, GM prices and most other stocks go up and down all day...generally within a narrow trading range. Prices move on "news" and perception of what that "news" means. To complicate matters, it's not necessarily "news" from news organizations. It could be "news" shown on the moving stock "tickers" that show large blocks...say 50,000 share blocks of stock in a particular company are being bought or sold. Why are Mutual Fund Managers and Hedge Fund Managers dumping their shares of GM...or loading up on GM shares? What do they know that I don't know? Is something bad about to happen to GM? Gee, I don't know but if institutional and big individual investors are dumping their GM shares and I own GM shares, I'm outta there...fast.

In reality mirage, I never listen to chatter from stock brokers...or stock analysts. I used to be a stock broker. I realized early on that most of them are clueless as to what makes stocks move up or down in price. They get stacks of stock analyst reports dumped on their desks every morning...as I did. Buy-Sell-Hold reports. Worthless because they're almost always wrong in some aspect of their analysis. The stock doesn't go up..it goes down or goes sideways in a narrow trading range. Or the timing of the proposed trade is so far off that the information is worthless in real time. I don't deal with individual stock brokers. I deal with an online "stock brokerage company" where I place buy or sell orders, electronically, which are executed almost instantaneously. They don't give advice and even if they did, I would disregard their advice.

posted December 07, 2016 05:15 PM            

Both your explanations are incredibly clear. I see what you're looking at. Thank you.

I don't know if you read a post I did before I deleted it? I had worked as an assistant (long term temp positions, then a permanent) for two major stock brokerages, from ~1980 to 1984 (FT mommy afterwards). I was the one who prepared/distributed all those reports that you said were placed on the brokers' desks early each morning. I'd work the heavy switchboard giving quotations all day sometimes. Did a LOTTTTT of posting for the brokers. That's just before things got computerized. One brokerage used Quotron, and the other used the Bunker Ramo system. Even worked 'the cage' sometimes.

In all that time, I never sat down to actually learn about the market (like you explained it in your post). I was good at being a support to my brokers, and their assistants. Knew what they wanted, anticipated and prepared the things they'd need.

Those new brokers had it really rough. I remember how 'hard' it was for them to break in to that work. It was a fight up that mountain. Lots and lots of cold calls!

posted December 13, 2016 10:16 AM            

It's interesting you used to be in the business. Hard job assisting stock brokers.

You're right about all that cold calling and trolling for business. I realized very early on that most potential clients were besieged with calls from stock brokers. I decided to prospect differently, very differently. I sent business owners and company executives a letter listing 3 stock picks TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS, with the usual disclaimers..."not a solicitation to buy these stocks, merely to watch them". For example:

NVTA
Invitae

52 week high $11.85
52 week low $ 5.66
Current close $ 7.46

In essence, I gave prospective clients a reason to come to me...if my stock picks panned out.

Internet brokerage ruined the stock broker business. Only the brokerage company can make money on $5 to $7 trades and only by booking a huge volume of trades.

posted January 17, 2017 06:01 AM            

This means a sudden stock crash has to happen from 22K level max, to compensate for the incoming liquidity crunch in stock markets. Risk to reward favors those who maintain short positions from 20K levels itself than invest heavily in long position [unless it is in Gold and Silver].

After the crash, recovery will depend on the dollar value against Yuan and bond yields. Lower Crude Prices can also sustain the correction.

posted February 10, 2017 12:58 PM            

Dow
20,265

posted February 21, 2017 04:10 PM            

So, how's that stock market crash working out for ya? Sure am glad I didn't sell the stock market short on November 9th.