posted July 09, 2005 11:25 PM         

Can't you bundle up everyone and head into southern Georgia?...which is predicted to be out of the wind zone...and that prediction would appear to be good since the hurricane is taking a northwest track up the Gulf of Mexico.

posted July 09, 2005 11:46 PM         

You can do it.

jwhop -

How can the probability of wind speeds over 131 be greater than the probability of wind speeds up to 131 ?
hmm..

posted July 10, 2005 12:20 AM         

Just to be sure I understand your point; are you suggesting the data should be ignored because you think there's a flaw in the way the National Hurricane Center categorized the information?

posted July 10, 2005 12:28 AM         

i'm sending prayers of light......

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/024557.shtml?tswind120

Published - July, 9, 2005
Dennis expected to become Cat. 4 at landfall; winds near 125 mph
Lesley Conn and Angela Fail
@PensacolaNewsJournal.com

Hurricane Dennis winds’ are near 125 mph, making it a strong Category 3 storm, and forecasters expect it to reach Category 4 by landfall, according to the latest information from the National Hurricane Center.

Dennis is located about 250 miles south of Panama City and about 340 miles southeast of Biloxi, Miss.

The storm is moving toward the northwest at near 14 mph. A gradual turn to the north-northwest is expected tonight or Sunday.

Dennis is expected to strengthen. To be classified as a Category 4, the storm must have sustained winds between 131 mph and 155 mph.

A storm surge of 12 to 14 feet, accompanied by large and battering waves, is possible near and to the east of where the center of Dennis crosses the northern Gulf Coast Sunday.

Reports from aircraft reconnaissance and signs of the storm resuming its track toward Northwest Florida have National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service forecasters concerned that this storm will be more intense and have higher storm surge than Hurricane Ivan, which made landfall in Gulf Shores, Ala., on Sept. 16 as a Category 3.

“It’s looking like it will be every bit as strong as Hurricane Ivan,” Weather Service official Don Shepherd said.

Storm surge is expected to exceed that of Ivan.
Residents in mobile homes and low-lying areas are encouraged to evacuate immediately.

The latest weather information completely changed the tenor mood at the Escambia County Sheriff's Office. Just as so many residents had, deputies and senior administrators were visibly hopeful that some computer models Saturday afternoon put the storm ashore closer to Biloxi, Miss., which would have minimalized impact to Escambia and Santa Rosa counties.

But National Hurricane Center forecaster Stacy Stewart told conference-call listeners that forecasters were confident the storm would come ashore between Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay, and its rapidly dropping pressure indicated it could be a 4. Late in the call, he reported that data from the aircraft showed pressure was continuing to drop. Latest readings were 947 millibars.

The intensifying storm could make driving conditions much more hazardous even before dawn on Sunday, sheriff's officials advised.
"We know that we're in for a lick, and all we can do is pray now,'' said Capt. Joel Mooneyham. http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050709/NEWS01/507 09005/1006

posted July 10, 2005 08:25 AM         

As of 8am, the hurricane had strengthened to 145mph.

Quick, someone call the National Hurricane Center and tell them they don't understand probabilities. The probabilities for both contingencies is now 100%.

posted July 11, 2005 10:53 PM         

Alabama "dodges a bullet"

Hurricane Dennis came and went Sunday night, leaving much of Shelby County and the surrounding area unscathed.

Alabama Power reported that nearly 220,000 people in Alabama were without power Monday morning, but the majority of those reports came out of coastal counties and Montgomery.

Governor Bob Riley addressed the public yesterday, even as Dennis thundered inland, saying that he believed the state had "dodged a big bullet." The governor said that the hardest hit town in the state was Atmore, with widespread power outages and wind damage.

Shelby County residents saw a number of tree limbs and brush in the yards Monday morning. But few reports of trees blocking roads and driveways were surfaced Monday.

posted July 12, 2005 12:56 AM         

Petron, do you like, follow jwhop or what? I've rarely, if ever see you over here..and now with...jwhop being here...you, you, you..

oh nevermind~

Bluemoon, i just saw this tonight and read your very sweet inquiry regarding my pregnancy.

Although I'm not aware of all the details of the story, I am sorry that you have to go through this. So I'm wondering, after 20 years it must either be excruciatingly difficult or easy to leave him. Which is it?

posted July 12, 2005 07:50 AM         

Yes, Lovely*, it is very painful. I haven't pulled up all my stakes or packed all my stuff. I am really not quite sure what to do with myself right now. Hate making the hard decisions. For now I am here at my mom's house. I have to go back for my son graduation on July 28. He is getting his Liscense Nursing degree.